The current 21-day lockdown may help reduce the projected number of symptomatic novel coronavirus cases in India by nearly 83 per cent till day 20 from the beginning of the intervention, thereby flattening the COVID-19 curve, scientists say.
The modelling study by researchers from Shiv Nadar University in Uttar Pradesh considered the optimistic scenario, where cases are isolated immediately within one or two days since showing symptoms.
“We also assumed 80 per cent to 90 per cent of the population resorted to social distancing,” Samit Bhattacharya, Associate Professor at Shiv Nadar University told PTI.
“In this optimistic scenario, we projected number of symptomatic cases can decline by almost 83 per cent by day 20 from the beginning of the lockdown — 3,500 against 30,790 — and deaths — 105 against 619 — as well,” Bhattacharya said.
The number of COVID-19 cases climbed to 1,965 in the country on Thursday while the death toll rose to 50, according to the Union Health Ministry.
The researchers believe that under the most optimistic scenario, the 21-day lockdown, announced by the government on March 24 to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, may help in slowing transmission and “flattening” the COVID-19 curve.
The researchers said the typical goal of flattening the curve is to minimise the number of cases over extended days, to gain more opportunities for interventions to control the spread of the virus meantime, and reduce the burden on the health care system.
At the beginning of the lockdown, India was in the second phase of the COVID-19 outbreak, with the disease spreading to close contacts, and there was no evidence for community transmission. However, the scientists said the country appeared to have slid into the third phase of the outbreak.
Leave a Reply